Conservative Iowans give DeSantis an opportunity to take on Trump

The 2024 Republican primary clash between former President Donald Trump and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis begins this week in Iowa, where pro-life, grassroots conservative voters offer Mr. DeSantis an opportunity to take a significant bite out of Mr. Trump’s hefty polling lead.

Mr. DeSantis, who announced his campaign on Wednesday, will hold an official kickoff event Tuesday in Des Moines and make several stops around the state a day later.

Mr. Trump, who has been bashing Mr. DeSantis almost nonstop since he jumped into the race, won’t be far behind.

The former president plans to shake hands with voters at the Westside Conservative Club in Urbandale on Thursday, according to his campaign.

Mr. DeSantis has barely begun to retaliate against Mr. Trump’s attacks, but his candidacy could turn the presidential contest much uglier in Iowa. The Florida governor poses the greatest threat to the former president so far among a growing field of Republican candidates.

Mr. DeSantis has an opportunity to win over more of Iowa’s Republican base by promoting his conservative record as governor and his adherence to pro-life principles that put him to the right of Mr. Trump.

Iowa is considered a particularly critical state for Mr. DeSantis, 44. He significantly trails Mr. Trump nationally and in Iowa. A win or a close finish in the Iowa caucuses in early January could jolt Mr. DeSantis into a more competitive position against the former president in other early contests.

“It’s about exceeding expectations,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.

Among non-Trump Republican candidates, Mr. DeSantis is by far the leader with double-digit support in every survey. Other non-Trump Republican competitors, including former U.S. Ambassador Nikki Haley and Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, poll in the low single digits.

A poll released Friday by Emerson College found Mr. Trump leading Mr. DeSantis among Iowa’s Republican caucus voters 62% to 20%. Mrs. Haley registered 5% support, and Mr. Scott had 3%.

Mr. DeSantis could use his inroads with Iowa’s strong contingency of pro-life voters, who are poised to dominate the Republican caucus turnout, to close the gap with Mr. Trump.

The pro-life contingency in Iowa praised Mr. DeSantis’ recent signature on Florida legislation banning abortion after six weeks of pregnancy and panned Mr. Trump’s criticism of the law as “too harsh.”

Bob Vander Plaats, who heads The Family Leader, a Christian group in Iowa, said the caucuses were “flung wide open” by Mr. Trump’s views on abortion, including his refusal during a CNN town hall to support a national ban on the procedure.

Mr. Trump remains extremely popular among Iowa Republicans and has launched an aggressive campaign to diminish Mr. DeSantis, a former House lawmaker, in the eyes of voters.

The former president has touted his signature achievement for the pro-life movement: nominating three Supreme Court justices who helped overturn Roe v. Wade, the 1973 ruling that legalized abortion nationwide.

“Iowa is still pretty much a Trump state,” said Dennis Goldford, a political science professor at Drake University in Des Moines.

Moments after Mr. DeSantis launched his campaign, Mr. Trump blasted him for co-sponsoring a bill during his time in Congress that would have ended the renewable fuel standard, which requires blending ethanol, much of it derived from Iowa corn, into the nation’s fuel supply.

The campaign also highlighted Mr. DeSantis’ opposition to subsidies for U.S. farmers suffering from China’s retaliatory tactics after Mr. Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods.

Mr. Trump promoted his lifting of a summertime ban, allowing gas stations to sell ethanol-blend gas year-round. Other actions he took while president to help Iowa included trade policies that led China to make a $325 million corn purchase in 2020.

Mr. Trump promised, if reelected, to make Iowa ethanol “the center” of his effort to restore American energy production. Ethanol is a critical part of Iowa’s economy.

The Iowa Republican caucuses haven’t picked a winning presidential nominee in a competitive election year since George W. Bush in 2000.

In 2016, Mr. Trump lost Iowa to Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas before steamrolling through most of the other primary states and crushing the rest of the Republican field of 17 candidates to capture the presidential nomination.

The caucuses also have been plagued with problems for quickly and accurately tabulating results.

Yet Iowa remains one of the most important contests for measuring the early strength of presidential candidates.

If Mr. DeSantis loses badly in Iowa to Mr. Trump, “that really seriously damages his campaign,” Mr. Goldford said.

Mr. DeSantis visited the state twice before his announcement, and an aligned super PAC has hired nearly 200 volunteers who have already knocked on 27,000 doors. Supporters say one of Mr. DeSantis’ main selling points is that he is better positioned than Mr. Trump to defeat President Biden in November 2024. Mr. Trump lost to Mr. Biden in 2020.

At a fundraiser picnic this month in Sioux Center in northwest Iowa, Mr. DeSantis took swings at Mr. Trump without naming him.

Governing, he told voters, “is not about entertaining … building a brand or talking on social media and virtual signaling. It’s ultimately about winning and producing results.”