2024 election could be decided by a new, dark money-backed political party

OPINION:

Alternatives to the traditional Republican and Democratic parties could very well draw enough interest to tip the scales in the upcoming presidential contest. Such movements have gained momentum as more moderate, middle-of-the-road voters who feel left out of the national conversation are swapping political affiliation.

Former New Jersey Gov. Christine Todd Whitman abandoned the Republican Party in favor of a new party she created called Forward. Arizona Sen. Krysten Sinema officially declared her independence from the Democratic National Committee in a move many expect West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin to replicate by year’s end.

Conventional wisdom holds the third-party presidential campaigns mounted in the 1990s by H. Ross Perot and in 2000 by Ralph Nader acted as little more than spoilers by siphoning away enough votes from the candidate who should have won to secure a victory for the candidate who should have finished second in both the popular vote and the electoral college tally.

A group called No Labels is poised to play a similar role in 2024. The No Labels Party is already on the ballot in 10 states — including the battlegrounds of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina. It’s also able to field candidates in Alaska, Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Oregon, South Dakota and Utah.

That means the No Labels effort needs to be taken seriously. The more states in which No Labels qualifies, the greater its impact on the national vote. Some people are hoping that happens, which means some people with enough resources to make a difference who support Mr. Biden or Mr. Trump may at least be contemplating how they can help it make mischief that accrues to the benefit of the candidate they’re backing.

Reports that supposedly independent, non-partisan organizations like Third Way have been meeting with Democratic politicos on Capitol Hill to brief them on the dangers its efforts pose to Mr. Biden’s re-election if someone like Mr. Manchin tops the No Labels ticket are disturbing.

Third Way is a 501(c)(4) tax-exempt corporation that wants to see Mr. Biden back in the Oval Office. It is permitted to engage in such activities if it pays for them with money raised for that purpose. But, as the Center for a Free Economy’s Ryan Ellis recently noted, that may not be how the organization does business.

According to the relevant forms filed with the IRS, the “lion’s share,” Ellis wrote, of the $57 million in grants and contributions it raised between 2019 and 2021 came from the Third Way Institute, a non-partisan group forbidden from engaging in partisan political activity because contributions to it are tax-deductible.

One might argue this kind of thing goes on all the time. Perhaps. Or maybe the IRS, which we know spends a lot of time monitoring the activities of tax-exempt organizations in the center-right space, doesn’t want to ask any embarrassing questions that might be traced back to the White House or senior leaders of the Democratic Party.

“The price paid for tax deductibility,” Ellis wrote, “is that (Third Way Institute) cannot engage substantively in lobbying or electioneering, including launching presidential campaigns.” If, as he asserts, tax-deductible contributions are being funneled to Third Way to pay for efforts to keep No Labels from qualifying for the ballot in all 50 states, that would be something the IRS must investigate.