Eight years after Russia illegally annexed Crimea, the Kremlin is on the verge of annexing four more occupied regions of Ukraine through the use of sham referenda decried as illegitimate by the Western powers. Should Moscow follow through and announce the regions as part of Russia, the window for any peace negotiations will close. That is because no Ukrainian government would recognize the results of the voting and therefore would see no alternative to trying to regain the annexed regions through force.
In this episode of History As It Happens, the Quincy Institute’s Anatol Lieven discusses the possibility of endless conflict over the Donbas. Russian President Vladimir Putin may not immediately annex the separatist Luhansk and Donetsk regions in Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland as well as the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions in the south. Instead he may “pocket” the referenda results as bargaining chips, Mr. Lieven said. But if Mr. Putin moves to annex those regions, escalation of the war is the most likely outcome.
“The result of the vote is a foregone conclusion. But you have to remember the separatist republics of the Donbas declared independence in 2014, but it wasn’t until eight years later that Russia actually formally recognized that independence. In the meantime, what Russia did was to use that as a bargaining counter or leverage in German- and French-brokered negotiations with Ukraine,” Mr. Lieven said.
“It could be the Kremlin, having organized these votes, will take note of them, will use them as a bargaining chip, but not move to annex as they did with Crimea. Crimea in 2014 was annexed by Russia and since then has recognized Crimea as its sovereign territory.”
Also in this episode, Mr. Lieven discusses comparisons made by some historians between Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Great War of 1914-1918. If today’s war is an existential struggle pitting liberalism against autocracy, so the argument goes, then the U.S. and Europe (NATO) must back Ukraine’s maximalist aims of regaining all its lost territory, including Crimea.
Listen to why such thinking could lead to months, if not years, of conflict — whether hot war or frozen conflict — by downloading this episode of History As It Happens.
