Large Russian force in Belarus unlikely, as Moscow’s troops are committed to Ukraine: U.K. intel

British military officials are skeptical of recent claims by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko that as many as 15,000 Russian troops would be part of a new Russian-Belarusian Group of Forces that would include 70,000 of his own personnel.

On Oct. 15, Belarusian authorities released a video showing the arrival of Russian troops to the area.

“However, to date, it is unlikely that Russia has actually deployed a significant number of extra troops to Belarus,” British military intelligence officials said Friday.

Because its troops are already committed in Ukraine, the Kremlin is unlikely to be able to generate the number of personnel claimed to be assigned to the Russian-Belarusian unit.

“The Belarussian military highly likely maintains minimal capability to undertake complex operations,” British military intelligence officials tweeted.

The announcement is likely an attempt to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard its northern border and as a show of Russian-Belarusian solidarity, British officials said.