In August 1945, days after atomic bombs incinerated the cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, President Harry Truman read aloud Japan’s full acceptance of the Potsdam Declaration, signaling its unconditional surrender to the Allies.
And so ended World War II, the only war in which sovereign states – Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan – had been “formally offered no terms short of total and unconditional capitulation,” wrote the historian Ian Kershaw in “The End,” his book on the final destruction of Hitler’s armies.
If total victory brought the Axis countries to their knees in 1945, it has proven elusive in almost all wars since. Modern conflicts almost always have ended in negotiated settlements, often after many years of indecisive fighting.
In this episode of History As It Happens, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, now concentrated in the eastern Donbas region, is placed in this historical context. Given the likelihood that neither side will achieve its maximalist aims, it is imperative to reach a settlement that will end the fighting and resolve at least some of the key territorial disputes, said Texas Tech military historian and Vietnam combat veteran Ron Milam in an interview.
“Most likely, Russia will be satisfied if it can completely take over the Donbas region, and they already have Crimea,” Mr. Milam said. “There is probably going to be a written agreement that Ukraine will never be in NATO.”
It may seem a dirty deal should Ukraine be compelled to cede territory after being victimized in an unprovoked invasion, but some alternatives may end in worse outcomes. Russia may escalate the war beyond the ability or willingness of the U.S. and NATO to help effectively defend Ukraine any further, leading to ever more destruction and civilian casualties.
But no such diplomatic settlement is in the offing. The immediate outlook foresees open-ended U.S. military support for Ukraine as Russia threatens to mobilize its reserve forces to pummel the Donbas into submission.
To listen to the full interview with military historian Ron Milam, click here or wherever you find your podcasts.
