Democrats struggle to recruit in Florida amid political headwinds, redistricting fight

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. — Florida Democrats, struggling against political headwinds and uncertain district maps, have been unable to recruit top candidates for several House races, dimming the party’s bleak 2022 prospects even further in the battleground state.

In South Florida, where two district races lack top Democratic recruits, party officials recently tried to lure the Miami Zoo’s public ambassador, Ron Magill, to run against incumbent Republican Rep. Carlos Gimenez in Florida’s 26th District.

The famed zookeeper, the Miami Herald reported, told Democratic operatives they were “nuts” and “grasping at straws.”

The outreach to Mr. Magill underscores the difficulty Democrats face as Florida’s changing electorate, coupled with poor approval ratings for President Biden, have made winning in 2022 an uphill battle for Democrats.

The increasingly long odds for Democrats may be chasing away prospective candidates in two races in south Florida, where Republicans defeated Democrats in 2020 and in central Florida, where incumbent Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy joined dozens of incumbent Democrats in deciding not to run.

Democrats have so far been unable to field candidates in any of those three races.

One prospective candidate, former Rep. Donna Shalala, said she won’t decide whether to challenge Republican Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar for her old seat until the state resolves a redistricting battle between the Florida Legislature and Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis.

Mr. DeSantis said he’ll veto the GOP-led redistricting proposal in favor of his own map, which likely would provide the party with a 20-8 advantage over Democrats in the House. The state Legislature’s more modest proposal likely would give the GOP an 18-10 advantage.

Unless the Legislature can override the looming veto, the matter is destined to drag on in court, delaying certainty for candidates wondering whether they can win in certain swing districts.

In addition to Mrs. Shalala, former Democratic Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell rejected a bid to run again for the seat she lost to Mr. Gimenez in 2020.

Democrats have yet to recruit a top candidate to run in the seat left open by Mrs. Murphy, who announced her retirement in December.

Matt Isbell, a data consultant for Democrats in Florida, said redistricting uncertainty may indeed be making it difficult for the party to recruit candidates in Murphy’s district.

“There is a lot of variation in some of these lines,” Mr. Isbell said. But the South Florida district lines are far more certain, despite the battle between Mr. DeSantis and the Legislature over redistricting, and it’s unlikely to be the real reason Mrs. Shalala and other Democrats are refusing to run.

The more likely reason, Mr. Isbell said, “is it’s just going to be a bad year for Democrats.”

While polling on individual House races is lacking, voter surveys on the governor’s race and Senate race show Republicans with solid leads.

A University of North Florida poll issued late last month showed Mr. DeSantis leading the two Democrats vying to challenge him by more than 20 points.

The same poll found incumbent Sen. Marco Rubio leading Democratic opponent and Rep. Val Demings by 12 points.

A Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee spokesperson has not yet responded to a request for comment on the party’s recruiting efforts in Florida.

A spokeswoman for the House GOP campaign arm said Democrats can’t find candidates because the party is tanking in the polls amid inflation, high gas prices, rising crime rates and a southern U.S. border overflowing with illegal immigration.

“We think the Florida Democrats are having a full-blown recruitment crisis across the state,” said National Republican Campaign Committee spokeswoman Camille Gallo. “And it’s because no one wants to run on their radical agenda. It’s just a recipe for disaster in Florida.”