The space weapons race is here

OPINION:

Americans rarely think about space as a real place where humans and their important equipment go to work. They don’t usually think of it as a place that is not only home to the vital satellites that allow for our advanced society to exist but a zone of strategic competition between the great powers of Earth. As the ultimate strategic high ground in modern warfare, space provides unprecedented military advantages for the nation that dominates this zone. 

For decades, Washington took its position as the dominant space power for granted. Yet, beginning in 2010, the Chinese and Russians both started reorganizing their militaries to be able to fight — and win — a space war against the United States. With the Russo-Ukraine War in high gear and not having an end in sight, American leaders must recognize the importance of space … and take bold action to secure America’s collapsing position in space.

In the wake of Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, for example, one of the first domains affected was space. Even before the Russians invaded the embattled nation of Ukraine, Moscow launched an unprecedented — and unannounced — massive anti-satellite (ASAT) space weapons test against a derelict Soviet satellite. The sudden Russian ASAT strike in orbit created a large debris field that threatened the safety of the International Space Station and the survival of the American and Russian cosmonauts onboard. In fact, for several hours in November, it looked as though the ISS crew would have to abandon the ISS and leave it to its destruction. 

Thankfully, the ISS was saved in the final minutes of the crisis. But Moscow’s intention with that strike was clear: It was a signal to Washington not to interfere in what was then the Kremlin’s pending invasion of Ukraine … unless America wanted to lose its satellites, that is. 

Space again became an arena of modern geopolitical competition in the Russo-Ukraine War. This time, SpaceX provided critical support to the besieged Ukrainians by giving 40 Starlink satellites to Ukraine and multiple ground stations to the nation. In response, the innovative American space startup company made itself a target of Ukraine because its Starlink satellites would grant Ukraine the ability to remain connected with the world as Russian forces desperately tried to isolate Ukraine from the rest of the world. Shortly thereafter, a fight erupted between Russia’s space agency, Roscosmos, and NASA over the future of the ISS. Ultimately, Roscosmos decided to forego its continued cooperation with the legendary space station. 

Moscow will instead begin closer cooperation with Beijing. The second most powerful space nation, Russia, will begin cooperating on long-term space missions with the rising third most powerful space nation, China — both in the military and civilian realms — to leapfrog the Americans in orbit.

Both Russia and China have spent years creating a range of weapons that could cripple the Americans in space, thereby rendering the U.S. military vulnerable on Earth. Co-orbital satellites have been developed and deployed by both autocratic states in orbit. As the name suggests, these tiny satellites are designed to tailgate sensitive American satellites and either sabotage them or physically push the critical American satellites from their orbits. In turn, the American forces charged with defending Europe from a Russian attack or Taiwan from a Chinese invasion would be unable to effectively respond and defeat such assaults.

Russia has tested these systems numerous times since 2015. In 2021, China launched Shijian-21 into geosynchronous orbit, the farthest orbit around the Earth and the place where most of America’s sensitive nuclear command, control and communication (NC3), as well as other vital military satellites, orbit the Earth. Beijing claimed Shijian-21 was intended to collect dangerous space debris. Instead, this system is likely a prototype for similar systems that will be used to tailgate America’s satellites in orbit and destroy them when China decides to invade Taiwan. 

While some methods are being developed to counteract such attacks on American satellites, these countermeasures are still in their infancy — and they will continue to be slow-walked so long as the United States Space Force is led by bureaucrats instead of Billy Mitchell, until Congress gives the Space Force a larger budget, and not before the Biden administration outlines a strategy of space dominance.

The Chinese, meanwhile, have developed a sophisticated laser that can blind American satellites as they pass overhead. Like something from a “Star Wars” film, this system can be used to fry the optical gear on important American surveillance satellites. Once fired, the laser scorches the satellite passing by, shutting it down until a ground operator on Earth can either restore its functions or abandon the satellite entirely. As that occurs, the United States will be temporarily blind in a strategically significant area (such as the Taiwan Strait), creating a window of opportunity for a large Chinese force to exploit. The Americans will be left blind in such an attack. They will be caught unawares by any Chinese invasion, giving the People’s Liberation Army the initiative in any engagement with American forces over Taiwan.

Lastly, as the Russo-Ukraine War rages and Taiwan is under persistent threat from China — with rogue regimes like Iran and North Korea ramping up their nuclear weapons capabilities — the risk of a nuclear world war has never been higher. Despite these obvious facts, the United States government has done little to prepare for such a potential nuclear war. In the 1980s, President Ronald Reagan proposed a shift away from the nightmarish doctrine of “Mutually Assured Destruction” to a more amenable concept of “Mutually Assured Survival.” He planned to deploy a constellation of advanced tracking satellites and satellites armed with lasers to knock incoming nuclear missiles as they entered orbit. Dubbed the Strategic Defense Initiative, this system would have rendered nuclear weapons obsolete and should have been deployed decades ago. 

Today, the United States certainly has the technology to do this. It simply lacks the political will and strategic foresight to do so. Why is Space Force not publicly calling for Congressional leaders and the Biden administration to give a greater budget to the new military branch so that Space Force may create adequate defensive capabilities both for existing satellite constellations as well as for the continental United States to protect itself from either nuclear or hypersonic attack? Where is Space Force with its doctrine of space dominance?

Without these things, America will be left vulnerable like Pearl Harbor, but from space. The only way to avoid that is for Space Force to act boldly and decisively, holding the strategic high ground of space for America. There is an arms race in space today — and the United States is currently losing.

• Brandon J. Weichert is the author of “Winning Space: How America Remains a Superpower.” He manages The Weichert Report: World News Done Right and can be followed via Twitter @WeTheBrandon.