OPINION:
Don’t believe what you’re seeing in the polls about Joe Biden beating President Trump by a landslide. There are 14 states that will decide the battle between President Trump and his challenger, Joe Biden: Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Virginia, Arizona, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.
In order for President Trump to win reelection, he can’t afford to lose Florida, Ohio, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Iowa. I believe he could lose Wisconsin and Michigan. But I also believe he can retain Pennsylvania. He will, however, have to take Nevada and New Hampshire from the Democrats. I think he has a chance in Colorado, Minnesota and even Virginia. The polls showing a Biden win by double digits isn’t realistic to me. I just don’t see both candidates getting under 200 Electoral College votes. So I don’t predict any landslide victory for either candidate. Clearly, it is going to be a close election.
According to party registration information, the Republicans are doing better now than they were in the 2016 elections. According to the latest Gallup poll 28% of Americans identify themselves as Republicans, while the nation’s Democrats are at 27%, and independents at 42%. At the same period in 2016 a Gallup poll had Republicans at 27%, Democrats at 32% and independents at 40%.
If you believe the polls, naturally you believe that Joe Biden will defeat President Trump by a landslide. In 1980 Ronald Reagan defeated incumbent President Jimmy Carter by 9.7% of the popular vote and 489 electoral votes. In 1992 Bill Clinton defeated incumbent President George H.W. Bush by 5.6% of the percent popular vote, and he won 370 electoral college votes.
TEDDYLEE GRAY
St. Ann, Jamaica
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