5 competitive House races to watch on Election Day

Democrats are poised to retain or expand their House majority but Republicans still have a shot at picking up a handful of seats in Tuesday’s vote.

Overall, Republicans have 17 seats considered a toss-up while Democrats only have 9 and are likely to increase their majority by 10 to 15 seats, according to an election-eve analysis from the Cook Political Report.

Here are some of the more competitive races to watch as Republicans target the Democratic Party’s most vulnerable members.

Collin Peterson, Minnesota’s 7th Congressional District

Rep. Collin Peterson, a 15 term-incumbent, is arguably one of the House’s most vulnerable members. He’s running in a district that Mr. Trump won by a 31-point margin in 2016.

The House Agriculture Committee chairman was also one of the three Democrats who voted against impeachment, which could help him in a conservative district. He faces off against former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach, a Republican who comes in with statewide name recognition.

Max Rose, New York 11th Congressional District

Rep. Max Rose, who was part of the blue wave that secured his party’s majority in the House in 2018, is running against state Assemblywoman Nicole Malliotakis. Mr. Rose defeated a long-term GOP incumbent in 2018 and has been a vocal critic of the Democratic Party in New York in an attempt to distance himself from far-left stars such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

President Trump won the district by nearly 10 points in 2016. Recent polls in the district found Mr. Trump holding a 3-point advantage this time and Mr. Rose ahead by 1 point.

Xochitl Torres Small, New Mexico 2nd Congressional District

Rep. Xochitl Torres Small has been a consistent top target for the GOP since flipping her district in 2018. She’s running against Republican Yvette Herrell yet again

Mr. Trump won the district by 10 points and has endorsed Ms. Herrell. An October poll from Research & Polling Inc. showed Ms. Torres Small trailing by 2 points, though it was within the margin of error.

T.J. Cox, California 21st Congressional District

While Rep. T.J. Cox’s district is one that 2016 Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won by a solid margin, Republicans are hoping former Rep. David Valadao will be able to win his seat back.

The Democratic incumbent beat Mr. Valadao in 2018 by less than 1 percentage point. Mr. Cox faced some controversy during this first term for owing $140,000 in unpaid federal taxes, which he said he’s since paid off — though the scandal was highlighted in Mr. Valadao’s ads.

Kendra Horn, Oklahoma 5th Congressional District

Rep. Kendra Horn is another Democrat running in solid Trump territory. The GOP previously held the district for more than 40 years before Ms. Horn won it in 2018. She has been a vocal critic of her party’s leaders, particularly during the coronavirus pandemic as negotiations between Democrats and the White House gridlocked.

She’s facing a tough reelection challenge from state Sen. Stephanie Bice.

Mr. Trump won the district by 13 points in 2016, and a late October poll from Amber Integrated found Ms. Horn trailing Ms. Bice by 5 points.