President Trump would have support to win 279 Electoral College votes — enough to clinch a second term in office — in a “Republican surge” Election Day scenario, according to projections CBS News released Sunday.
Among people who already have voted, Joseph R. Biden holds a 66% to 32% edge, and Mr. Trump holds a 69% to 27% lead among likely voters who plan to show up on Election Day, according to CBS/YouGov polling.
Under a baseline scenario, Mr. Biden had 279 electoral votes in his column among states he’s likely to win or are leaning his way.
It takes 270 electoral votes to win the presidency.
Under a “Republican surge” scenario on Election Day, Mr. Trump would carry key battleground states like Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona and North Carolina, and end up with 279 electoral votes to Mr. Biden’s 259.
Those projections assume an increase in the size of the Election Day vote by an average of 7 points, while keeping vote preference among early voters and Election Day voters fixed.
Under a scenario where the size of the Election Day vote decreases by an average of 3 points from the initial estimates, Mr. Biden would win 375 electoral votes to Mr. Trump’s 163.
“So with the Biden campaign having banked so many early votes, Mr. Trump is very reliant on robust turnout among his supporters this Tuesday,” CBS said in its analysis. “Election-Day voters support the president in large numbers in the most competitive states — the question is, will they follow through?”
• David Sherfinski can be reached at dsherfinski@washingtontimes.com.
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