Recent editorials from Idaho newspapers:
Want the pandemic to end? Don’t fight over COVID-19 vaccine like we did over masks
Dec. 18
Idaho Statesman
This week was a cause for celebration in Idaho and across the United States, as the first shipments of the COVID-19 vaccine began to arrive at hospitals.
This is the moment we’ve all been waiting for, right? The solution to the pandemic. The magic bullet to get us all immune to the coronavirus. The end is in sight. We can see the light at the end of the tunnel.
Of course, not all is rosy. Why would it be? Not in our day and age of conspiracy theories, social media disinformation and the politicization of what should be accepted science.
Unfortunately, we have to temper our enthusiasm over the arrival of the vaccine with the realization that some people - who knows how many - will not get it, for a variety of reasons, whether it’s anti-vaccine sentiments in general, skepticism over the rapid development and production of a new type of vaccine, or some off-the-wall conspiracy theory involving Bill Gates and microchips.
But if we want to get back to normal - as everyone wants to do - it’s going to require as many people as possible to be vaccinated.
“We need to assure our patients that any vaccine, once approved, is not only safe and effective, but that it’s undergone the rigorous review required before being made available to the public,” American Medical Association President Dr. Susan Bailey said last week during a webinar for journalists reporting on the vaccine.
Dr. Anthony Fauci said that 75% to 85% of the population would need to get the vaccine to achieve “herd immunity,” which is the level of protection for those members of the population who either won’t or can’t get it.
Polls on people willing to get the vaccine are all over the map, with one Pew Research Center poll in September showing only 51% of Americans would definitely or probably get the vaccine. More recent polls, though, are showing promise, with acceptance rates as high as 84%.
In Idaho, many residents view vaccinations with suspicion, and the state is near the bottom compared with other states for rates of flu vaccinations, according to The Associated Press. About 50% of children 6 months to 17 years old in Idaho got a flu shot last winter, the third-lowest rate in the nation, according to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Among adults, only about 41% got flu shots, putting Idaho ninth from the bottom.
“Here is the nightmarish scenario - that we have a safe and highly effective COVID-19 vaccine … and then because distrust is so high and lack of confidence is so high, no one wants to take it, and that is just not going to be acceptable,” Dr. Howard Koh, former assistant secretary for health for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, told the Boston Herald.
If Americans don’t trust the vaccine and choose not to get it, “this pandemic is going to go on indefinitely,” Koh said.
There’s plenty of reason for concern. But Dr. David Pate, retired CEO of St. Luke’s Health System, said he remains “realistically optimistic.”
“I actually think this is not going to be the problem we fear it will be with people getting vaccinated,” he told me in a phone interview.
For one, as more and more people get COVID-19, more and more people will know someone who has had it, has had serious complications from it or has died because of it, and that might sway people to get the vaccine.
Unlike, say, measles or mumps, which are somewhat more intangible, COVID-19 is an immediate, tangible threat outside your door.
Next, Pate points out that the COVID-19 vaccine is free, taking away any cost barrier. Medical providers can still charge for administering the shot, according to the CDC, but those bills may be covered by insurance or, for uninsured patients, by a federal fund.
Third, he thinks there’s a growing, widespread recognition that life will not return to normal if we don’t get enough people vaccinated.
Pate discounts earlier polls showing low acceptance rates because at the time, the vaccine was not yet a reality. Now it is. More people will see their doctor or neighbor or family member getting it, and will see that it’s safe and effective.
Finally, Pate suspects that people who do not get the vaccine might be prevented from doing some things, such as traveling to other cities, states or countries. Private employers, insurance companies, sporting venues and other private businesses might require you to get a vaccine.
So what levels do we need to get to achieve herd immunity or at least get out of the pandemic?
Pate doesn’t think we’ll necessarily be looking at the percentage of people who have received the vaccine. Those ranges vary widely, and no one is certain what the exact percentage would need to be.
Pate thinks we’ll be looking more closely at our new case rate per day per 100,000 people as a benchmark for when we can declare victory over the coronavirus.
Idaho’s moving seven-day average of new cases per day was right around 94 per 100,000 people, according to data compiled by the Brown School of Public Health data.
“By anyone’s criteria, that is extremely high,” Pate said.
Some measures consider 25 new cases per 100,000 people a “tipping point” for uncontrolled community spread. Pate thinks as people get vaccinated, we should see the new case number start to go down.
But we have a long way to go.
“I’m guessing that when that number of average new cases per day per 100,000 gets down in the range below three, that’s probably when we will say we’ve really got this under good control, we’re probably achieving some semblance of herd immunity,” Pate said. “And that’s probably the point where we can start saying we can relax our restrictions.”
How long before we have enough vaccine for everyone who wants one?
If everything stays on track, there should be enough vaccine to cover everyone by May or June, said Sarah Leeds, immunization program manager with the Idaho Department of Health and Welfare.
“At this point … we think the general public, by spring to summer, will be able to access the vaccine somewhat readily,” Leeds said.
So if we can hang on, continue wearing a mask, limit gatherings, practice social distancing and get the vaccine when it’s your turn, we could start to see a downturn in COVID-19 numbers.
Finally.
Online: Idaho Statesman
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