OPINION:
“Virus surge makes U.S. weak link in global rebound” (Web, Aug. 11) conrains several “myths” regarding the U.S. response to the virus surge. The major error is in not realizing that the massive testing program in this country, combined with the contract tracing (both of which are good from a public-health standpoint) are bad from a public-relations standpoint.
Assume an individual shows positive on a test for the virus. That results in tracing and testing for those with whom the individual has been in contact. This smaller group has a higher probability of showing positive infection than people selected at random. Therefore, the more aggressive a country is in testing and contact tracing, the higher the perceived (not necessarily real) rate of infection. This is compounded by the number of people who have the virus but are asymptomatic. They would be unlikely to “self-select” for testing without contact tracing.
Another issue affecting the perceived rate of infections is the number of false positives and false negatives. Any testing program has both. In the U.S., we would likely calibrate our tests to favor false positives. One would prefer to have an indication that you have the disease when you really don’t than to have an indication that you don’t have the disease when you really do. Therefore, the better the test, the higher the perceived (again, not real) rate of infection.
The ultimate test regarding COVID-19 is the death rate from it, but even there what you see is not necessarily what you get. If someone has both COVID-19 and a pre-existing condition, what goes on the death certificate? In the U.S., I suspect it’s COVID-19. In China, who knows?
DENNIS HALL
Vienna, Va.
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