OPINION:
Democrats have two precedents for beating President Trump in 2020: 1976 and 1992. Those are the last two times a Republican in the White House has lost. Political scandal defined the first and economic slowdown dominated the second. The economy is doing well and out of Democrats’ control, which is why they are so insistent on pursuing scandal.
When President Ford ran in 1976, the economy had been in reverse each of the previous two years. Yet as detrimental as a negative economy is for a president, it was Watergate that loomed over the election. The greatest scandal in modern American politics had been President Nixon’s, but Mr. Ford obtained a share by pardoning his predecessor. It was enough to sink him in his narrow loss to Jimmy Carter.
When George H.W. Bush I ran in 1992, he had achieved a foreign policy and military masterpiece as commander in chief of Desert Storm. However, the barest of economic slumps — -0.1 percent in 1991 — was Bill Clinton’s target with “the economy, stupid.” It presented opening enough for Mr. Clinton to slip through in a three-person contest.
Stretching back roughly two generations, these are the two variations that have worked for Democrats against White House Republicans. As 2020 approaches, they offer Democrats more dilemma than blueprint.
The economy is the shared variable in Democrats’ last two presidential evictions and is potent. The problem is, it is also currently unavailable. As Friday’s surprisingly robust 3.2 percent first-quarter growth figure again showed, the economy is stubbornly strong. Pick any prominent variable — unemployment, wage growth or economic growth — all offer Democrats nothing to use against President Trump next year.
It also is out of Democrats’ control, plus it presents a very unfavorable comparison with their last president. Controlling only the House, Democrats cannot even get an economic policy contrast to President Trump’s desk. And the contrast that does exist — with President Obama’s sustained subpar economy — is one Democrats definitely do not want before voters.
Topping it off, Mr. Trump has some control here. A China trade deal or removal of trade tariffs are both opportunities Mr. Trump could use to improve an economy that currently does not need any.
Until further notice — and right now, barring huge reversal — the economy is off limits to the Democrats.
That leaves Democrats with their second option: scandal. Just as Watergate brought Democrats a 1974 midterm windfall (just two years after Nixon’s landslide re-election), scandal played a role in Democrats’ 2018 House takeover. It seemed poised to play it again in 2020, as it had in 1976 … then came the Mueller report.
Special counsel Robert Mueller’s report burst Democrats’ scandal balloon by driving a huge hole through Russian collusion. Now they are left trying to patch and re-inflate it with obstruction of justice charges. However, because Democrats had made Russian collusion central to their de-legitimization strategy of accusation, investigation and repetition, the obstruction of justice charges — which inevitably circle back to it — have nothing to cling to.
The fact remains that incumbents are hard to beat, but of the two precedents for defeating this president, neither looks good for Democrats now. They are left with scandal by default, as being at least somewhat within their control. In short: “It ain’t much, but it’s all they’ve got.”
Democrats’ scandal “need” goes beyond exploiting a Trump vulnerability, which they have worked hard to create, but also to compensate for their nominee’s virtually assured liability.
Barring political miracle, Democrats will nominate the most left-leaning candidate any major American party ever has. The general election liability is that liberals comprise just a quarter (26 percent according to 2016 exit polling) of the electorate. Starting only halfway to a majority, means starting behind. The more prolonged and divisive Democrats’ nomination process, the more “left” their nominee will be. If their nominee is to start weak, they need Mr. Trump to be weakened too — scandal fits the bill.
Presidential incumbency’s advantage is real — it’s why so few lose re-election. President Trump, who won with a minority and remains divisive to many, will benefit more than most. Democrats currently lack either precedent — recession or scandal — for beating an incumbent, but they have a better chance of creating the latter than the former.
So while Democrats are trying to keep the Trump scandal storyline alive — which they want to be true — they would be harmed in any case: Because they desperately need it. A year-and-a-half from the election, they have nothing else.
• J.T. Young served in the Office of Management and Budget and at the Treasury Department.
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