John Yarmuth: House Democrats unlikely to pass budget

It’s looking increasingly unlikely House Democrats will be able to pass a budget this year, with leaders saying they’re weighing other options to try to frame the 2020 spending debate.

One plan would involve trying to strike a deal outside the budget process that would raise the spending caps Congress imposed on itself under a 2011 deal.

“I would say it’s moving more toward that direction,” said House Budget Chairman John Yarmuth, Kentucky Democrat.

Earlier this month he’d said chances of passing a full budget through the House were 50-50. Prospects have since dimmed.

“It’s probably not 50-50,” he said Wednesday.

Democrats are stuck trying to balance the high-cost wish list of liberal members, who want to see expansions of health care, clean energy and the social safety net, with fears over exploding deficits held by a number of Democrats from congressional districts President Trump carried in 2016.

Skipping a budget would not be unusual. Lawmakers frequently bypass the annual non-binding resolutions, which often amount to little more than generalized statements of party priorities.

Yet Democrats mocked the GOP for failing to produce budgets in some recent years. House Majority Leader Steny H. Hoyer has said the ability to write a plan was a prerequisite for governing.

On Wednesday Mr. Hoyer said Democrats will still try to pass the annual spending bills, even without a budget to guide them. He said he expects action by June.

But that will require a deal on raising the caps, which otherwise would require severe cuts to both domestic and defense spending

“Now, it is the Congress’ job to move ahead with good faith efforts to agree on raising the caps,” said Mr. Hoyer, Maryland Democrat. “Appropriators need guidance also to build to begin the hard work of writing funding bills. They need to know what the agreed spending level will be.”

Agreeing on caps will be difficult.

The White House said it wants to trim domestic spending while keeping defense spending high, though it uses a gimmick to avoid breaching the defense cap.

Senate Republicans’ proposal rejects those gimmicks, and holds out the chance for a deal to raise the caps.

But they’ll likely want a bigger increase for defense than domestic spending — something that will rankle House Democrats.

The Senate Budget Committee took its first steps Wednesday toward writing a 2020 budget.

Chairman Mike Enzi’s plan includes some entitlement trims similar to those in Mr. Trump’s proposal, but includes more realistic economic assumptions, in addition to dumping the defense spending budget gimmick.

“I know this budget won’t solve all our problems and I don’t pretend it will,” Mr. Enzi said Wednesday. “It provides a path, however, for us to begin working together to achieve real deficit reduction.”

Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, though, said lawmakers were spinning their wheels.

“This budget has no hope of passing the House, which makes this year’s mark-up especially insignificant,” said Mr. Whitehouse, Rhode Island Democrat.