Dianne Feinstein up big in Senate primary in California: Poll

Incumbent Dianne Feinstein holds a big lead ahead of Tuesday’s Senate primary race in California, according to a poll Friday that says a little-known Republican challenger is “within striking distance” of state Senate leader Kevin de Leon, the favorite for the coveted number-two slot.

The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll says 36 percent of likely voters prefer Ms. Feinstein, who is seeking her fifth full term, when they’re presented with a list of all 32 candidates.

Mr. de Leon, a Democrat running to the left of Ms. Feinstein, places a distant second at 11 percent, though Republican James P. Bradley is making things uncomfortable for him, at 7 percent.

California employs an unusual “jungle primary” system that lets the top two finishers advance to the general election, regardless of party.

Mr. de Leon says he would be fine with a second-place finish, saying he can make his case as a fresh outsider in a head-to-head matchup with Ms. Feinstein, an 84-year-old Capitol Hill veteran.

The IGS polls suggest he’d better watch out for Mr. Bradley, who is nipping at his heels. The rest of vote is split among GOP business owner Paul A. Taylor (4 percent) and a smorgasbord of minor Republican and Democratic candidates, yet a quarter of voters are still undecided, the poll found.

Preferences align with party affiliation, with few voters crossing over to select a person from the other party. Yet a whopping 38 percent of Republicans are undecided compared to 20 percent of Democrats, heaping pressure on Mr. de Leon to deliver after he swiped key endorsements and more delegate votes than Ms. Feinstein at the state Democratic convention earlier this year.

“The highly partisan nature of voter preferences and the fact that nearly twice as many Republicans as Democrats are still undecided, could work to Bradley’s advantage since it offers him greater opportunities than de Leon to expand his support base in the closing days,” the Berkeley pollsters said.

Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS poll, said there isn’t a Republican in the race who has spent a lot of money or built up name recognition, so it’s “really like shooting darts” for GOP voters who remain loyal to the party.

“For Bradley, my sense is they see this kind of noncontroversial Anglo name that benefits him, and his job title — chief financial officer — benefits him,” he said.

While Ms. Feinstein’s support jumped from 28 percent to 36 percent from April to the latest poll, Mr. de Leon’s remained static, at 11 percent.

Mr. Bradley dropped from 10 percent to 7 percent, though seemed to solidify his place as the Republican standard-bearer.

“If they coalesce around Bradley, it’s going to be a close race,” Mr. DiCamillo said.

Mr. Bradley is a U.S. Coast Guard veteran who now serves as the CFO for an “entrepreneurial company,” according to his campaign website.

His online pitch positions him as the “outsider’s outsider” who can spend the liberal status quo in California.

“Tell me, friends, when was the last time a leftist Democrat in California had a new idea? Can you think of one?” his website says. “All I’ve heard is endless repetition of their self-serving ideas about how they can spend your money better than you can. They slipped past their sell-by date years ago.”

Mr. de Leon is touring the state this weekend to try and lock down the number-two spot.

His campaign says it’s not taking anything for granted, given the breadth of the electorate and lengthy candidate list.

The IGS numbers suggest he has a tall mountain to climb in a matchup against Ms. Feinstein, assuming he can best his GOP foes in Tuesday’s bout.

“He doesn’t have to worry about the second if he doesn’t get through the first,” Mr. DiCamillo said.