Kyrsten Sinema, Dem candidate, leads in Arizona Senate race: Poll

Republicans are going to be playing catch-up as they try to keep Arizona’s Senate seat red this year, according to a new poll Thursday that shows Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, the likely Democratic nominee, ahead of all three major GOP rivals.

And President Trump is a major problem for the Republicans, according to the OH Predictive Insights/ABC15 poll.

Mr. Trump’s favorability rating is underwater, with just 43 percent of voters saying they hold a positive view of him. And that’s playing out in the fractious GOP primary, where all three candidates — Rep. Martha McSally, former state lawmaker Kelli Ward and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio are seeking the nomination. The primary is in August.

“Democrats are unified, Republicans are less united, and the all-important independent voters are trending anti-Republican/Trump” said Mike Noble, chief pollster at OH Predictive Insights. He said the question will be how many of those anti-Trump voters pull the lever for a Republican in November anyway.

For now, most of them appear not likely to do so.

Ms. Sinema tops Ms. McSally by 6 percentage points, runs ahead of Ms. Ward by 10 points and trounces Mr. Arpaio by 26 points.

In the primary, Ms. Ward holds a lead at 36 percent, followed by Ms. McSally at 27 percent and Mr. Arpaio at 22 percent.

The seat is being vacated by Sen. Jeff Flake, a Republican who served on term before bowing out, saying he had become disenchanted with the political rancor in Washington and the leadership of Mr. Trump.

Arizona is one of Democrats’ best chances to pick up a Senate seat this year, on a map that’s otherwise not very favorable.