OPINION:
Is the year 2018 going to be a seminal year for America, like 1941, 1974, 1989, or 2001? When one looks at the inherent instability of the world and of American politics at the dawn of this new year, it seems that big events could occur in 2018. The status quo, both domestic and global, is under challenge on a number of major fronts.
Consider the following areas of crisis or looming crisis:
• North Korea: The United States is determined to prevent the hermit kingdom from getting nuclear weapons and the missile capacity to deliver a devastating nuclear blow to the American homeland. And yet Kim Jong-un is almost certain, based on his current program, to get both the weapons and the delivery capacity relatively soon. President Trump seems intent on enlisting China’s help in pressuring North Korea into standing down on his nuclear ambitions, but this is iffy. China has little incentive in tattering further its already frayed relations with its client neighbor.
Indeed, the Nikkei Asian Review of Japan reports that China is bracing for a major conflict between North Korea and America. According to the report, China has initiated action to build refugee facilities along its border with North Korea that could accommodate up to 500,000 people. “Stockpiling of food and tents has apparently begun,” says the report. It seems a good bet that the status quo in this situation won’t last through 2018.
• Iran: President Obama bought time by joining five other nations in seeking an accommodation with Iran that precluded serious nuclear weapons development by that country for a decade in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions against the Islamic Republic. But Mr. Trump has accused Iran of violating the spirit of the deal and threatened to pull out if it isn’t strengthened beyond the terms of the original compact. If he resumes U.S. sanctions, as threatened, tensions could mount rapidly between Iran and the United States.
America seems more and more closely aligned with Israel and Saudi Arabia on the issue of Iran, which those nations see as a major strategic threat. They want American power brought to bear in curbing Iran’s growing regional influence, as American power was employed in taking out Iraq’s Saddam Hussein in 2003. The matter is complicated by Iran’s apparent resolve to expand its regional power and influence at the expense of the Sunni powers in the area. Mr. Trump seems bent on building up pressure on Iran, and it’s difficult to see where all of this goes. Perhaps the status quo can hold through the coming year, but prospects of serious destabilization certainly can’t be discounted.
• Ukraine: This tragically split country remains a major flash point between Russia and the West. Russia views NATO’s eastward push since the Clinton presidency as a major provocation and threat. It has vowed to prevent any such expansion into Ukraine, part of the Russian sphere of influence for centuries. Further, Russia bristles at Western suggestions that Crimea, home to a crucial strategic naval base, doesn’t legitimately belong to Moscow.
In support of a separatist movement in eastern Ukraine, Russia has deployed forces to the provinces of Donetsk and Luhansk. The West, meanwhile, views Russian meddling in Ukraine as a sign of expansionism akin to the Soviet era. Mr. Trump has decided to provide Ukraine with potent Javelin antitank missiles — designed, it was explained, to raise the cost to Russia of any expansionist intentions in that country. The missiles, said the administration, were strictly defensive in nature.
But if those missiles are used to degrade Russia’s position in eastern Ukraine, where tanks are crucial to the country’s military dominance there, the fighting could escalate quickly. Then the relatively calm but brittle standoff of today could become a major East-West confrontation. Russia will not back down on Crimea and its support of Ukrainian separatists without a fight.
• The U.S. Russia Investigation and Related Matters: The U.S. political classes are in a war of dominance centered on two competing narratives. The Democratic version is that the Trump team stole the 2016 election by “colluding” with Russians, probably including Russian President Vladimir Putin, to cadge and distribute dirt on Hillary Clinton and tilt the outcome in Mr. Trump’s favor.
The Republican version is that Obama administration figures, in league with top FBI officials, manufactured the basis for an investigation against the Trump team and manipulated events to bring about a special counsel that now is seeking to overthrow the president and reverse the election.
This remarkable turn of events poses a question: Have we reached a new era in American politics in which electoral outcomes are rejected routinely, and efforts to criminalize political activity become just another tool for those seeking to grab or retain power?
Whatever the answer, this raucous partisan finger-pointing threatens to destabilize American politics, undermine governmental legitimacy, and pull the nation into a slough of despond. It’s difficult to see how this gets adjudicated in ways that can calm the political waters and get the mess behind us. More likely it will all blow up and contribute further to the country’s frenzied civic rancor and ennui.
Perhaps 2018 will unfold without major turning point developments or earthquakes of the old order. But don’t count on it. At home and abroad, we see numerous instances of what seem like status quo crises. Major destabilizing events seem almost certain.
• Robert W. Merry, longtime Washington, D.C. journalist and publishing executive, is editor of The American Conservative. His latest book is “President McKinley: Architect of the American Century” (Simon & Schuster).
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