OPINION:
“I’ll be like a mechanic who’s under the hood working on the engine.” — Ross Perot, presidential candidate (1992)
No matter what the question, Ross Perot told reporters the answer was simple. “Just look under the hood.” The independent candidate for president in 1992 rose quickly in the polls. Eventually he self-destructed, climaxed by his wild charge that Republicans threatened to disrupt his daughter’s wedding.
There is a double standard that enabled outsider Mr. Perot and now favors another billionaire — Donald Trump. It is the delusional belief that Superman can come to the rescue. We don’t ask Superman how he will fight for “truth, justice and the American way.” He just gets the job done.
In contrast, we insist that politicians who Mr. Trump calls “stupid” and “incompetent” must atone for flip-flops (Mr. Trump has many) and propose specifics (Mr. Trump has few). And the more details Mr. Trump’s opponents provide, the more vulnerable they are, to account for elusive costs and stubborn inconsistencies.
Once voters believe they have found a leader, they engage in cognitive dissonance. In other words, they reject contrary information as they expediently adjust their beliefs. For example, gay supporters of Ross Perot expressed disbelief when reporters confronted them with this: Mr. Perot would not consider a homosexual for his Cabinet. Interviewed at Mr. Perot’s West Hollywood headquarters, they finally admitted they “never thought it necessary” to ask his position on gay rights.
Republican candidates fall over themselves to pursue evangelicals, but Mr. Trump gets their plurality without trying. Ted Cruz is a born-again Christian. Mr. Trump is a Presbyterian. John Kasich is flawed and prays. Mr. Trump never asks God for forgiveness. Scott Walker would ban all abortions. Mr. Trump was pro-choice before he was pro-life. Rick Santorum would prohibit stem cell research. Mr. Trump’s religious mentor was “positive thinking” Norman Vincent Peale. Mike Huckabee suggests civil disobedience against the Supreme Court marriage decision. Mr. Trump accepts gay marriage. How quickly, all the other candidates ask, can we defund Planned Parenthood? Mr. Trump would continue its funding.
What about Mr. Trump’s personality? We were told that Ted Cruz is too confrontational, Chris Christie is a bully, Rand Paul scolds reporters. Donald Trump is all of these, but his surgical attacks have disabled media scrutiny and intimidated opponents. He devastated Jeb Bush as “a nice guy with low energy.” Jeb’s $100 million for paid ads cannot reliably tear down Mr. Trump, who excels at the more credible free, earned media.
Mr. Trump is a consummate showman who entertains. He avoids jargon and connects with everyday language. He uses his face and voice and humor. Complicit media make him the only show in town. One reason Mr. Trump solidifies his lead is that he gets 90 percent of the media coverage, and the other 16 candidates share leftovers, mainly their reaction to Mr. Trump, who rarely has an announcement or policy statement, just stream of consciousness.
Mr. Trump’s visibility is contagious: He simply calls in to weekday CNN, Fox and other network television programs and even to the pivotal Sunday morning television shows, as if he’s on Talk Radio. When unsure voters see his rising support, they opt for him in the next poll. It is like a rising stock’s momentum: Everyone wants in.
These primary polls overstate Mr. Trump somewhat, because they include Republican-leaning independents. But in a general election, Mr. Trump could draw not only many independents and nativists, but also what once were “blue collar” Democrats, and don’t count out disenchanted African-Americans. Once Mr. Trump’s immigrant-bashing extends beyond Mexicans, he’ll exceed normal Latino support for Republicans.
The primary and general election polling is synergistic. No wonder Mr. Trump’s ceiling keeps rising. The Republican consultant class relies on polls, Mr. Trump on instinct. He milks each news cycle and brilliantly uses critics like Jorge Ramos as props. While his opponents flounder, Mr. Trump will now focus on the Iran deal. The experienced politicians then will play follow the leader.
Donald Trump is beating the politicians at their own game. A skilled negotiator, he has made his blunders non-negotiable. Instead of apologizing, he always doubles down. His best defense is offense. Mr. Trump’s ego is seen as take-charge, his bluster as confidence, mistakes as authenticity, insults as candor. Mr. Trump uniquely projects self-deprecating arrogance.
Mr. Trump is enthused and passionate. He looks like he’s having a good time, and so are we.
• Arnold Steinberg, a political strategist and analyst, is the author of graduate texts on politics and media.
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