OPINION:
Labor Day is the traditional opening day of the November election campaigns, and Oct. 1, a date now fast upon us, is the day when the races get serious. Voters start paying attention to the blah blah, trying to extract meaning from what they see and hear, and a mistake that could be corrected in August is often fatal in October. It’s the season of the October surprise.
With control of the House of Representatives all but assured to stay in Republican hands — even Democrats say so — the question on every spectator’s lips is a simple one: Will the Republicans capture the Senate, and with it full control of Congress? If they do, the Grand Old Party, though less grand than it once was, might prevent the worst that the gang that can’t shoot straight will try to inflict as the Obama years begin a welcome but slow fade.
With 45 senators now, the Republicans must pick up a net of 6 seats to win control. If they win just 5, the Senate is tied, and the Democrats control because the vice president gets a vote to break ties. Joe Biden could never leave town, not even for a favorite funeral. He and his crucial vote would have to stay in Washington.
The elections in several states are crucial, and some are more crucial than others. Arkansas, Louisiana, West Virginia and North Carolina are the most closely watched for Republican pickups as October approaches. But strong candidates in Iowa and Colorado have unexpectedly put races in play. Kentucky may no longer be, with Mitch McConnell, the Republican leader, pulling ahead.
The big losers over the next five weeks will everybody who watches television. Commercials will take over the airwaves in excruciating volume. By one estimate, “outside spending,” by sources other than the candidates’ campaigns, have so far dumped a record $228 million into the campaigns, up 11 percent over 2012. Commercials have been broadcast a stunning 53,000 times in North Carolina alone, where Sen. Kay R. Hagan, a Democrat, is trying to withstand the strong challenge of Thom Tillis. In Arkansas, where Mark L. Pryor, the Democratic incumbent, seems to be falling behind Tom Cotton, the Republican challenger, television viewers have been inundated with 38,000 commercials.
“Nothing’s been off-limits,” says Dana Kelly, a columnist for The Arkansas Democrat-Gazette in Little Rock. “If some strategist suggests more Bible-thumping is in order, poof! An ad appears with a candidate perusing Holy Scripture. If a poll indicates voters buying into criticism concerning grit, voila! Fly in his drill sergeant. Tornadoes, Ebola outbreaks — no topic is so tasteless as to be taboo.”
Some analysts see a Republican wave beginning to build. Democrats are trying to find signs of revival. Hope springs, faint if not eternal, at least until Election Day.
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