Charting the market: Best June since 2005

As the first half of the 2011 real estate year came to a close, area sellers found themselves in pretty good shape.

Although sales were lower than they had been during spring, June’s sales were quite good compared to Junes of recent memory. It was, in fact, the best June for area home sellers since 2005 - before the real estate meltdown began.

Sales were a little lower than they had been in May, which is to be expected. Summer sales are always lower than what we see in the spring.

(For the best viewing experience, we recommend that you “view in fullscreen” by clicking the button on the far left at the bottom of the Scribd frame below.)

Because the inventory of unsold homes remained about the same from May to June, buyers didn’t have to compete with one another quite as much as they did in May.

That’s captured in the sales-chances figure of 30 percent for June, down from 32 percent in May.

Sales chances are calculated by dividing a month’s sales figures by the inventory on the last day of the month, resulting in a percentage. A figure below 20 percent indicates a buyer’s market. Higher figures mean we’re in a balanced market or a seller’s market.

You can see that chances are still above 30 percent in the District, Montgomery County and throughout the Northern Virginia area. When chances are that high, buyers have to compete to get the most attractive homes. Multiple offers can push sales prices up.

Sales chances are lower in much of Maryland, but they are improving.

What will the second half of 2011 look like? Assuming this year is like every other year, sales will continue to cool each month until January. If inventory drops at the same pace, sales chances will remain high.

Typically, however, inventory takes longer to fall each year, which means buyers usually don’t have to compete as much in the latter half of the year.

It was good to see that the number of homes listed with area Realtors was down in June. In June 2010, 10,916 homes were listed for sale. This June, 10,390 were listed — a drop of nearly 5 percent.

Send email to csicks@gmail.com.