It was a very strange year for Washington-area home sales. In 2010 we saw record highs and deep lows, with a final total of about 88,000 existing-home sales - a drop of 7 percent compared to 2009.
How could sales have fallen, when the homebuyer tax credits boosted sales so dramatically? By the end of April, 2010 sales were up 15 percent over 2009.
That, however, also was the last month buyers could take advantage of the credits. Sales dropped sharply in May, as can be seen in the bottom chart.
Sales continued to be mediocre for the rest of 2010, especially when compared to 2009. Remember, those tax credits were encouraging consumers to buy homes throughout 2009.
Also note that the original tax credit was set to expire in fall 2009, so many buyers scrambled to purchase then. As a result, sales statistics for the fall of 2010 look even worse by comparison to the inflated numbers from the fall of 2009.
That kind of skewed comparison is going to plague us throughout 2011 as sales figures from this year are compared to the very unusual figures posted in 2010.
There’s one other thing I’ll point out about these annual figures. For the sake of context, remember that in 2005, the Maryland and Virginia sides of the Potomac River were seeing about the same number of home sales each year. Maryland’s total for 2005 was 56,226 and Virginia’s was 57,298.
In 2006, however, sales crashed in Virginia. The sales boom that had been fueled by easy mortgage money came to a sudden halt. Sales fell 31 percent in Virginia in 2006, compared to a 17 percent drop in Maryland.
In 2007, sales equalized once again, with about the same number of homes sold in Maryland and Virginia.
Then, Virginia sales took off in 2008, rising by 35 percent while sales in Maryland fell another 17 percent.
Maryland’s rebound began in 2009, when sales rose 37 percent compared to just a 10 percent increase in Virginia. But Virginia still outsold Maryland by about 10,000 homes.
Last year, Maryland sales managed to remain steady despite the roller coaster, while sales in Virginia fell 15 percent compared to 2009.
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The statistics in this story reflect a metropolitan area that includes the Maryland counties of Montgomery, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel, Howard, Charles and Frederick; the Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford; the city of Alexandria, Va.; and the District.
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