McCollum loses his lead to Scott in poll

Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum may be the latest establishment politician headed for a fall.

A new poll puts former health care magnate and political newcomer Rick Scott up by 13 points in the Republican primary for governor over Mr. McCollum, long the front-runner and one of the state’s best known politicians.

The Quinnipiac University survey stands out in stark contrast to polls conducted last month that showed Mr. McCollum with double-digit leads.

Mr. Scott’s surprising turnaround is powered mostly his multimillion-dollar television advertisement blitz intended to introduce him to voters, political experts say.

“Mothers may tell their children that money can’t buy happiness, but what these results show is that money can buy enough television ads to make political neophytes serious contenders for major political office,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The Republican primary winner in the general election most likely will face Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Alex Sink or Lawton “Bud” Chiles III, whose father was a former Florida governor and U.S. senator.

About six out of 10 Quinnipiac survey respondents say they could still change their minds before the Aug. 24 primary. But the results show just how potentially powerful the combination of money and an anti-establishment candidacy can be this election year, the pollster says.

Mr. Scott’s ability to take the lead so quickly also is a reflection on Mr. McCollum’s lack of strong support within his own party despite his two decades in Florida politics, experts say.

“There’s room for a sort of independent candidate, and the great thing about Scott is that nobody knows anything negative to say about him,” said Florida Atlantic University political science professor Kevin Wagner. “A lot of people know who [Mr. McCollum] is, but a lot of people aren’t all that excited about him.”

While Mr. McCollum campaign funding can’t match that of his independently wealthy opponent, he isn’t hurting for money. Yet the attorney general largely hasn’t responded to the Scott campaign, puzzling some Sunshine State political observers.

“Bill McCollum is kind of like the deer in the headlights, just staring and freezing and not knowing whether or not to move to the right to try to take out some of the steam from the Scott engine,” said University of Florida political science professor Daniel Smith.

Mr. Smith estimates that Mr. Scott is spending $1 million to $2.5 million a week on his ad campaign, which started in earnest a few weeks ago.

“Scott’s like this faucet, just dripping and dripping and dripping. [His ads] are irritating but Republicans are paying attention to them, and Mr. McCollum has done nothing to respond,” he said.

The candidate also spent millions of dollars last year on a media campaign that opposed President Obama’s health care reform.

But the former health care executive also has some potentially damaging career baggage. He was ousted in 1997 as head of the Columbia/HCA hospital group by its board of directors in the midst of one of the most massive Medicare and Medicare fraud scandals in U.S. history.

Four years later the company reached a plea agreement with the U.S. government that eventually led to it paying more than $1.7 billion in fines, back payments and lawsuit settlements.

Don’t expect Mr. McCollum to launch a vicious counterattack on his opponent, Mr. Smith said.

“That’s not his style. That’s one of his real liabilities,” Mr. Smith said.

Mr. McCollum may be hoping instead that surrogates attack Mr. Scott for him, experts say.

Mr. Scott’s hot poll numbers will cool in the coming weeks when the public learns about his past, Mr. Wagner said.

But with the primary only weeks away, no one should discount the Scott’s campaign, said University of Central Florida political science professor Aubrey Jewett.