TRENTON, N.J. | The outcome Tuesday in New Jersey’s neck-and-neck race between Democrat Gov. Jon Corzine and Republican challenger Christopher J. Christie hinges on a third-party candidate whose draw at the polls will help both parties gauge the mood of nation’s electorate heading into the 2010 midterm contests.
The latest voter surveys show plenty of anger out there, with independent Chris Daggett taking as much as 12 percent of the vote — an incredibly strong showing for a third-party candidate in New Jersey.
It would be enough to sink Mr. Christie, the unlikely front-runner in this solidly blue state. Polls show that his campaign is boosted by Republican voters taking a keen interest in the race as the wildly unpopular Mr. Corzine struggles to energize disinterested Democrats.
President Obama, putting his reputation and momentum on the line, campaigned hard to energize voters in New Jersey and sustain what he called a “realignment” in Virginia last year after carrying that state for the Democrats for the first time since Lyndon B. Johnson’s landslide victory in 1964.
Yet the latest polls show Republicans ahead in both states, with chagrin about the national economy competing with local concerns as top issues in the campaigns.
On the eve of the vote, the White House has all but given up hope of Democrats holding on to the Virginia governor’s office.
In New Jersey, Mr. Christie has tried to direct voters’ anger at Mr. Corzine, hammering the governor for state taxes that are the highest in the country and a jobless rate that is the highest in three decades.
“November third is accountability day. Let’s pick up [Mr. Corzine] and throw him out,” Mr. Christie told voters during a campaign stop Monday.
Anger also is a factor in the special election for New York’s 23rd Congressional District, where Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman mustered enough support out of the “tea party” movement to force the Republican nominee out of the race.
Mr. Hoffman leads in polls of the Republican-leaning district in upstate New York.
Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. campaigned with Democrat Bill Owens on Monday, urging moderate Republicans to vote with Democrats and send a message to the “most extreme wing” of the Republican Party.
The fate of the race depends on where supporters of Republican Dede Scozzafava, who quit the race on Saturday, direct their votes. Mrs. Scozzafava endorsed Mr. Owens, while Republican leaders in Washington now back Mr. Hoffman.
The episode revealed a deep fissure between conservatives and moderates within the Republican Party, a split that could frustrate the party’s drive to pick up congressional seats in 2010.
Other contests Tuesday include mayoral races in several major cities, another special election for California’s 10th Congressional District and few ballot initiatives — elections in a handful of states that provide a further glimpse into the country’s political mind-set.
Pollsters say Mr. Daggett would be doing even better if New Jersey voters thought an independent candidate had a chance of winning the race.
Even if he can’t win, he’ll be a “major factor” in deciding who does win, said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.
“There are a good number of voters who are disgruntled with both major parties,” he said, adding that for Mr. Daggett to garner more than 6 percent of the vote “will be a sign that voters are tired of this partisan bickering and business as usual.”
Mr. Corzine led in the race 43 percent to 41 percent, with Mr. Daggett taking 8 percent of the vote, in a Monmouth/Gannett New Jersey poll over the weekend.
A Quinnipiac University poll conducted during the same time frame showed Mr. Christie ahead by 2 points and Mr. Daggett capturing 11 percent.
The numbers are bleaker for Virginia Democrat R. Creigh Deeds, a state senator who was trailing Republican Robert F. McDonnell 53 percent to 41 percent in a Richmond Times-Dispatch survey late last week.
If the trends holds in voting Tuesday, it would send a frightening message to Capitol Hill Democrats in tough races next year. They will know that Mr. Obama’s personal popularity can’t be depended on to deliver votes.
That knowledge threatens to undermine Mr. Obama’s ambitious agenda because it will make it harder for some vulnerable Democrats — House members in conservative districts and Senate moderates from Southern states — to back White House plans such as the health care overhaul, the administration’s top priority.
• S.A. Miller can be reached at smiller@washingtontimes.com.
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