Because of increased home sales in Virginia particularly, it was somewhat easier to sell a home in April. Sales chances rose to 15 percent last month - the highest we’ve seen since May of last year.
Still, we definitely remain in a buyer’s market. Alexandria and Arlington may be on the verge of becoming balanced markets, but overall, sales chances for the region remain quite low.
Sales chances are calculated by dividing a month’s sales by the inventory on the last day of the month, resulting in a percentage. A figure below 20 percent indicates a buyer’s market. Higher figures mean we’re in a balanced market or a seller’s market.
Last month’s sales were the highest we’ve seen all year, largely thanks to an explosion of home sales in Prince William County.
April may have been this year’s peak sales month, however. Sales always slow in the summer, and that won’t do much to whittle down the backlog of 52,000 homes that were sitting on the market at the end of April.
If people keep adding homes to the inventory, which they surely will, and home sales remain mediocre, I expect us to enter the 2009 market with a big surplus of unsold homes, just like this year.
The difference between the spring market of 2008 and that of 2009 may depend upon where home prices go in the next seven months. If prices fall a little more, it could revive interest among buyers. That’s what we have seen in Prince William County.
So, although it might hurt to see prices fall during the second half of 2008, it could be just what we need to see the real estate market revive.
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The statistics in this story reflect a metropolitan area that includes the Maryland counties of Montgomery, Prince George’s, Anne Arundel, Howard, Charles and Frederick; the Virginia counties of Arlington, Fairfax, Loudoun, Prince William, Spotsylvania and Stafford; the city of Alexandria; and the District.
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